Mondael turns prediction-market probabilities into institutional intelligence for macro, geopolitical, and policy risk.
Snap election UK called before Q4?
Strait of Hormuz disruption Q3?
China GDP Growth <3% in H2?
| Alert | Size | Desk |
|---|---|---|
Ukraine & Russia ceasefire by Q3 2027? Volume spike · 15m flow | $1,233,521 vs $374,221 avg | Geo |
Iran and US Peace Treaty Dec 31, 2026? 1d price move | +0.11¢ Repricing Today | Macro |
US Unemployment above 4.3% in Q3 2026? Spread widening | 7¢ Yes/ 8¢ No Bid-Ask Dislocation | Macro |
Iran and US Peace Treaty Dec 31, 2026?
7 day co-movement
For Iran and US Peace Treaty Dec 31, 2026?
EEMEmerging Markets
EUFNEuropean Financials
VXXVIX Index
Prediction markets are crossing into institutional infrastructure: regulated venues, market makers, and rising notional value. The analytics layer is still missing.
Mondael monitors event-risk probabilities across prediction-market venues and public macro sources, then normalizes them into institutional workflows for policy, geopolitical, and macro analysis.
Visualise order flow, open interest, and volume spikes across prediction markets in real time to understand in real-time how events are unfolding.
Compare event probabilities against ETFs, FX, rates, commodities, credit, and volatility — including lead/lag signals that show whether markets are reacting to events or anticipating them.
Rule-driven alerts for probability changes, volume spikes, leader changes, close races, near-resolution contracts, and widened bid/ask spreads.
15m volume cleared 5x baseline
5.8xTop two outcomes within 5 pts
4.1Bid/ask spread widened past 8 pts
8.6Mockups are illustrative. Methodology, scoring, and data architecture are not disclosed publicly.
Prediction markets are crossing into institutional infrastructure to hedge across commodities, insurance, pandemic, and geopolitical risk.
Weekly notional volume across selected prediction-market venues. Source methodology available on request.
Prediction Markets That Matter
Track wars, sanctions, shipping lanes, and diplomatic shocks that can move oil, gas, defense, shipping, and regional risk.
Follow live probabilities around global inflation, rates, Chinese growth, stimulus, and commodity demand.
Translate political outcomes into measurable risk for tariffs, taxes, regulation, defense, energy, banks, and FX.
Monitor outbreak probabilities, travel restrictions, vaccine timelines, and disruption risks.
Sanctions, conflict, industrial policy are moving markets. Take advantage of curated prediction data to stay ahead of developments.
OFAC Sanctions List Updates, SIPRI world military expenditure, and ICE BofAML MOVE annual average close; rebased to 2017 = 100.
Mondael is building a research environment of expert forecast analysts. Their accuracy will be scored and evaluated over time, allowing you to take advantage of their insights.
Elena Stojanović
EU Election Specialist
Ravi Krishnamurthy
EM & Capital Flows
Marcus Osei-Bonsu
Macro & Rates
Léa Vaillancourt
Energy & Commodities
Profile illustration. Identity, exact scoring, and ranking mechanics are not disclosed publicly.
TrackUse Mondael to observe in real-time which risks are repricing, which assets may be exposed, and which narratives are driving the move.
Catch event repricing before others
Surface meaningful probability moves across macro, geopolitical, and policy markets before traditonal media.
Connect odds to assets
Compare event probabilities with equities, FX, rates, commodities, credit, and volatility.
Track risk themes via alerts
Monitor elections, sanctions, wars, central banks, trade and sovereign risk.
Connect to professional workflows
Use Mondael through our powerful UI dashboard or APIs built for institutional users.
Mondael is designed for analysts, strategists, risk teams, and data buyers who need to integreate prediction-market probabilities inside institutional environments.
Track event-risk probabilities across rates, FX, commodities, equities, volatility, and central-bank-sensitive markets.
Monitor elections, wars, sanctions, trade restrictions, energy shocks, sovereign risk, and cross-border policy shifts.
Identify which live event probabilities may affect portfolio exposure, hedging decisions, and scenario planning.
We’re onboarding analysts, risk teams, research desks, and data buyers in waves. Tell us where you sit and what you’re trying to price.