I
LiveMarket Intelligence
Curated prediction-market data across macro, policy, and geopolitical risk — normalized into one institutional workspace.
EM SOVEREIGN
54%DM RATES
41%ENERGY
23%POLICY
67%1Mondael · Institutional Intelligence
The Intelligence Layer
for Prediction Markets.
Mondael curates and analyzes prediction-market data for macro, geopolitical, and policy risk — connecting live probabilities with institutional workflows, asset context, forecaster attribution, and research feeds.
- Coverage
- Macro · Geo · Policy
- Surface
- Dashboards · API · Feed
- Status
- Institutional preview
DEMO · Sandbox view
FXRATESENERGYVOL
SOVEREIGN · Europe
Snap election UK called before Q4?
54%▲ 6.0
ENERGY · Macro
Strait of Hormuz disruption Q3?
23%▼ 4.0
RATES · Asia
China GDP Growth <3% in H2?
41%▲ 2.0
| Alert | Size | Category |
|---|---|---|
Ukraine & Russia ceasefire by Q3 2027? Volume spike · 15m flow | $1,233,521 vs $374,221 avg | Geo |
Iran and US Formal Peace Treaty? 1d price move | +0.11¢ Repricing Today | Macro |
US Unemployment above 4.3% in Q3 2026? Spread widening | 7¢ Yes/ 8¢ No Bid-Ask Dislocation | Macro |
Correlation Mapρ 0.71 · 7d
Iran and US Formal Peace Treaty?
7 day co-movement
Iran contractEEM
Correlations
For Iran and US Formal Peace Treaty?
7d
EEMEmerging Markets
EUFNEuropean Financials
VXXVIX Index
2Product
An institutional surface for live probability.
Four modules. Built to be read by analysts, queried by APIs, and trusted by risk committees.
II
LiveMarket Flow Monitor
Visualise order flow, open interest, and volume spikes across prediction markets in real time.
III
LiveCross-Asset Context
Compare event probabilities against ETFs, FX, rates, commodities, credit, and volatility — including lead/lag signals that show whether markets are reacting to events or anticipating them.
IV
LiveMarket Alerts
Rule-driven alerts for YES price moves, 15-minute volume spikes, leader changes, close races, near-resolution contracts, active-call moves, and widened bid/ask spreads.
- PRICE
YES price moved 5.4 pts in 1h
+5.4 - VOL
15m volume cleared 5x baseline
5.8x - RACE
Top two outcomes within 5 pts
4.1 - SPREAD
Bid/ask spread widened past 8 pts
8.6
Mockups are illustrative. Methodology, scoring, and data architecture are not disclosed publicly.
3Market Moment
A new market exists.
The tools haven't caught up.
Prediction markets are crossing into institutional infrastructure: regulated venues, prime intermediation, and rising notional. The analytics layer is still missing.
150×
User growth
Early 2024 → Late 2025
>70%
Informational Prediction Market Traffic
Users who don't participate in trading
$240B
Projected 2026
Annualized, internal est.
Institutions
Jump · NYSE · SIG · Virtu
Logos for Jump, NYSE, SIG, and Virtu rotate in the institutional intermediation card.
Mondael is exchange-agnostic. We aggregate both Polymarket, Kalshi, and other data feeds into one institutional view.
Monthly Volume · Polymarket + Kalshi
$B notionalMonthly notional volume across aggregated Polymarket and Kalshi data feeds, Apr 2024 – Apr 2026. Source figures referenced from public on-chain and venue data.
4Forecaster Network
Tap our global network of vetted forecasters, ranked by accuracy and timing.
Mondael is building a research environment where expert analysis is tied to live market probabilities and evaluated over time. The goal is simple: separate the analysts whose calls are early, profitable, and repeatable from everyone else.
- Profiles tied to trackable calls — not opinion volume.
- Signal evaluated across markets, sectors, and time.
- Ranked signals surfaced inside the institutional product.
Forecaster Leaderboard · Live
Q2 · 2026#AnalystCallsHitBrier
- 15271%0.18
Elena Stojanović
EU Election Specialist
- 23968%0.21
Ravi Krishnamurthy
EM & Capital Flows
- 34167%0.20
Marcus Osei-Bonsu
Macro & Rates
- 42865%0.22
Léa Vaillancourt
Energy & Commodities
Profile illustration. Identity, exact scoring, and ranking mechanics are not disclosed publicly.
Track5Why Now
The macro regime has already shifted.
Sanctions, defense, conflict, and industrial policy are no longer side variables — they price the curve.
+270%
Sanctions growth
Cumulative since 2017
$2.7T
Defense spending
Global 2024 — steepest rise since the Cold War
61
Active conflicts
State-based, 2024 — a historic high
~120
Bond volatility
Elevated MOVE index since 2022
3×
Commodity shocks
Energy, food, metals vs. prior decade
$3T+
Industrial policy spend
IRA, EU Green Deal, MIC 2025, and related
Macro Pressure Index · Illustrative
2017 = 100Sanctions
Defense Spend
Bond Volatility
Composite of sanctions actions, real defense spend, and bond volatility, rebased. Illustrative — not a tradable index.
6Analyst Workflows
What an analyst can do with Mondael
Prediction markets produce live probabilities. Mondael makes them usable for institutional analysis.
Use Mondael to see which risks are repricing, which assets may be exposed, which narratives are driving the move, and which forecasters have been early before.
- 01
Catch event repricing early
Surface meaningful probability moves across macro, geopolitical, and policy markets.
- 02
Connect odds to assets
Compare event probabilities with equities, FX, rates, commodities, credit, and volatility.
- 03
Track risk themes
Monitor elections, sanctions, wars, central banks, trade, energy, supply chains, and sovereign risk.
- 04
Export into professional workflows
Use Mondael through dashboards, research surfaces, and data feeds built for institutional users.
7Customer Profiles
Built for the professionals who already price uncertainty
Mondael is designed for analysts, strategists, risk teams, and data buyers who need prediction-market probabilities inside institutional workflows - not retail discovery feeds.
01
Macro analysts
Track event-risk probabilities across rates, FX, commodities, equities, volatility, and central-bank-sensitive markets.
02
Geopolitical risk teams
Monitor elections, wars, sanctions, trade restrictions, energy shocks, sovereign risk, and cross-border policy shifts.
03
Portfolio managers and CIOs
Identify which live event probabilities may affect portfolio exposure, hedging decisions, and scenario planning.
8Early Access
Selective access.
Institutional cohort.
We’re onboarding analysts, risk teams, research desks, and data buyers in waves. Tell us where you sit and what you’re trying to price.
Request access
- Institutional pilots — macro, geo, energy, sovereign risk.
- Forecaster applications — submit a track record.
- Data & API buyers — feed evaluation on request.