---
title: Mondael Glossary
description: Terminology for Mondael, prediction markets, event probabilities, market flow, and institutional risk workflows.
last_updated: "2026-06-16"
---

# Mondael Glossary

## Terms

- **Prediction market**: A market where prices imply probabilities for future events or outcomes.
- **Event contract**: A contract tied to the resolution of a specified future event or condition.
- **Event probability**: The market-implied likelihood of an outcome, usually expressed as a percentage.
- **Event-risk probability**: A market-implied probability used to assess the likelihood and potential market impact of a discrete event.
- **Total Prediction-Market Intelligence**: Mondael monitors event-risk probabilities across prediction-market venues and public macro sources, then normalizes them into institutional workflows for policy, geopolitical, and macro analysis.
- **Market flow**: Trading activity such as volume, open interest, order flow, and liquidity changes.
- **Cross-asset context**: Comparison of event probabilities with exposed assets including ETFs, FX, rates, commodities, credit, volatility, and equities.
- **Forecaster attribution**: Connecting forecasts to vetted analysts, trackable calls, evidence, and accuracy scoring over time.
- **Brier score**: A scoring method for probabilistic forecasts where lower values indicate better calibration.
- **Institutional preview**: Mondael's current selective access phase for analysts, risk teams, research desks, and data buyers.

## Sitemap

See the full [sitemap](/sitemap.md) for all pages and machine-readable resources.